Last week I wrote about a Dagens Nyheter article that it should focus more on stopping the

Last week I wrote about a Dagens Nyheter article that it should focus more on stopping the "sharp increase" blood in urine of breast cancer in Sweden. The same day that the article was published, a radio interview on P1 Morning with Per Hall, which stood first among the authors (P1 Morgon 2013). He deepens what was said in the article about the causes blood in urine of the increasing trend. Women today live differently than "grandmother": for "a few generations blood in urine ago gave birth grandmother children very early, nursed blood in urine a long time, gave birth to many children, she ate no pill, no HRT when she came in menopause". There are things that epidemiological blood in urine studies have shown to be more or less strong protective blood in urine factors at the individual blood in urine level. But whose grandmother, he talks about when he says that the grandmother had these factors? blood in urine
A typical blood in urine Swedish breast cancer patients today have already become grandmothers to someone who belongs to the now rising generation, then the median age of new cases in 2011 stood at just under 65 (National Board of Health 2013a), so keep aiming reasonably at an older generation of grandmothers. On 28 October I wrote about the analyzes of age, period and födelsekohorteffekter on mortality from various causes of death in Sweden, including breast cancer, which I made with the help of the software BAMP and data from (WHO 2013; National Board of Health 2013b; SCB 2013). I also made, using the same method, analyzes of the incidence of breast cancer, where data are available for the period 1958-2011 through (National Board of Health 2013a). The chart below shows the cohort of incidence and mortality, plus the average number of children for the corresponding birth cohorts blood in urine (kohortfruktsamhet), for data in (SCB 2002, 96). The chart (click to enlarge) shows the median of BAMP-estimated effects of cohort on mortality and incidence of breast cancer between blood in urine the ages of 20-84 years (left y-axis) blood in urine and fecundity in the corresponding cohorts (right y-axis). See main text of the citation to the raw data and explanation.
We see that there is a negative relationship between kohortfruktsamhet and cohort on incidence and mortality for the cohorts born until about 1890. No such relationship can be seen for younger cohorts (variations in fertility are small for cohorts born after about 1900), and there is not also no clear correlation between the effects blood in urine on incidence and mortality in cohorts born after 1890. Swedish women born in the 1800s gave birth to clear more children on average than women born during the 1900s. It was also so that they bore children "very early"? Yes, there is no data at the individual level as the average age of first child can be determined for women born prior to the early 1900s, and among the cohorts in which there are data was that age lowest among women born in the 1940s, blood in urine where it stood at about 24 years. However, if we look at the average number of children in the age groups up to 24 years, it was 0.73 for women born in 1800-01 and 0.57 for women born 1850-51. For women born in 1945 was 0.77, and for those born in 1975, it had fallen to 0.26. 1800 talskohorterna managed to get relatively many children because they continued to give birth well into old age: the number of children after the age of 35, for example, 1.52 for the 1850-51 cohort, compared with 0.18 for the 1945 cohort (SCB 2002, 92).
If Hall is aimed at Grandma at an average Swedish pensioner today he is right in giving birth to more children than a modern-day average breast cancer blood in urine patient, and apparently he is right in that she is not eating the pill or hormone replacement. Though it is not true that she gave birth to their first child earlier, probably not for the grandmother or great-grandmother to any living generation of Swedes. In itself it must be said that the definition of "Grandma" excludes those women who do not even became mothers, the proportion fell from over 15 per cent of the 1925 cohort to over 10 percent for 1940 talskohorterna, then re-approaching 15 percent among the young. In the 1800s women has been estimated at 20-25 per cent (Statistics blood in urine Sweden, 2002, 26). (Is it perhaps the case that there is a tendency to associate with Grandma when we think of an older generation of women, that causes people to overestimate the generation of actual fertility, which I speculated about in a post October 23, 2008?) Anyway can not be altered reproductive patterns explain the incidence increases that have taken place in recent decades.
An interesting question in this context is the extent to which differences in reproductive patterns may explain international variations that seem to occur regarding the reported incidence of breast cancer. The diagram below shows the relationship between blood in urine the average of the period blood in urine fertility 1971-80 (which can act as a decent measure of kohortfruktsamhet among the generations that today suffer blood in urine from breast cancer), based on data from (Gapminder 2013), and the risk of breast cancer up to and including 74 years age (without competing mortality), based on data from (IARC 2010), for all the peoples where both these data were available. Chart